Brief analysis of silicon carbide Market Operation in the first half of 2017
The European debt crisis in the international market has not been fundamentally resolved, China's economic slowdown and the US recovery are slow, the economic uncertainty of emerging market countries is increasing, and the demand for international markets is low. At the same time, with the abolition of the 2017 SiC export quota, the silicon carbide export market is more open, and more manufacturers want to participate in the export trade directly, while traders are facing more pressure of competition. In recent years, influenced by many factors, the export of silicon carbide has been lingering, and the prospect of industry and industry has been in turmoil.
First, the export market of silicon carbide in China in the first half of 2017.
According to the customs statistics, the total amount of silicon carbide export in China was 134 thousand and 200 tons in 1-6 month of 2017, up 86.2% from the same period, and the total export amount was 149 million 130 thousand US dollars, which increased by 15.7% over the same period. The volume of exports in June was 28 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 59.1% compared to the same period last year, and the total export volume was 27 million 70 thousand yuan, down 5.6% compared with the same period last year, and the ratio decreased by 7.9%. Looking at the export situation of silicon carbide in the first half of the year, the export volume of silicon carbide increased steadily, but its growth rate slowed down from 159% in January to 59.1% in June. On the one hand, the production of silicon carbide is limited by domestic energy saving and emission reduction policies; on the other hand, the demand for silicon carbide downstream market is not good enough, and the refund is poor. Under the double pressure of domestic manufacturers, silicon carbide and silicon carbide powder and grain processing enterprises have repeatedly complained.
In China, the export market of silicon carbide is mainly in Asia and North America. The export share accounts for 66.6% and 28.2% of the global export share respectively. In 2016, it exported to 55 countries and regions. The countries and regions with a thousand tons of exports were in turn Japan, the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, new slope, Thailand, India and Turkey.
Two, a brief analysis of the market situation of silicon carbide in the first half of the year
(1) the market market of silicon carbide for 1-6 months
From 1 to February, during the Spring Festival holidays, all buyers began to stock up. Many manufacturers are ready to stop production due to market downturn, high cost and low profit. The start-up time is still pending. But individual businesses are working overtime to meet buyers' needs. After the Spring Festival, downstream producers are gradually producing normally, and the demand for silicon carbide for refractories and abrasives is gradually restored. Some enterprises are running out of stock, and the market is showing signs of stocking. However, influenced by the downturn of the market, businesses are not feeling very well stocking, but still rely mainly on cautious wait-and-see. 3, in the first ten days of the month, the market of domestic and export of silicon carbide was general, but the market still felt the pressure of raw material price rising. After that, the market has maintained a weak shock, a stable pattern, but the domestic and foreign environment is more severe, it is difficult to recover in a short time. The trend of silicon carbide will not be too smooth in the later period. The market stability is only temporary, because there are many factors affecting the silicon carbide market, so many manufacturers do not have confidence in the trend of future market. In general, the high grade of silicon carbide in the first half of the year is relatively stable and stock stock has been hoarding, low grade supply shortage, smelting enterprises have risen about 100 yuan / ton, but because the steel price falls and falls, the steel plant reduces the purchase price and reduces the demand, so the price of silicon carbide is difficult and stable. But relative to the domestic market, the export market is relatively optimistic. Although the export price has declined slightly, the overall trend is relatively prosperous.
(two) changes in the related upstream and downstream industries
1, the demand for steelmaking market is increasing.
Although the market of steelmaking enterprises has been fluctuating, it can not block the activity of silicon carbide products in the steel making industry. With the advent of orders, it is obvious that the demand for silicon carbide in domestic and overseas market is increasing. In particular, the demand for the silicon carbide ball has been steadily increasing, the index of the silicon carbide ball between 60-75% is much more, and the requirement for sulfur is also strictly determined. With the improvement of technology, the application of silicon carbide in the steelmaking industry is also increasing, and the demand for new silicon carbide varieties in the steelmaking industry is gradually established.
2. The PV market changes the SiC industry
Photovoltaic industry has great influence on the high purity silicon carbide industry. Crystal silicon wafer cutting is the largest market for wire cutting micropowder at present, and silicon carbide powder is a very important auxiliary material for silicon wafer cutting. Its market demand has maintained a strong growth momentum with the development of the photovoltaic industry. However, since May, the market price of SiC powder has loosened, and the demand for products has been decreasing. In particular, after 2005-2010 years of high growth rate of more than 40% of the composite growth rate, the photovoltaic installation is in a state of almost stagnation, influenced by the most important changes in the European photovoltaic market policy. Overcapacity has brought serious inventory pressure, which makes the photovoltaic industry chain a large callback, the price is down, from the integrated system, components, silicon, even to the higher threshold of the upstream polysilicon material, all sectors of the industrial chain are free to escape. In the near future in China and Europe, the photovoltaic dual counter attack, photovoltaic enterprises continued to stop production, even part of the enterprise declared bankruptcy, many PV component enterprises switched to photovoltaic power stations, in order to reduce inventory, while selling power stations back to the cage funds.
In July 15th, the State Council issued the "six rules" of photovoltaic industry. It clearly pointed out that in order to standardize the order of industrial development, we should promote the construction of standardization system and testing and certification system. At present, the construction of standard system is imperative and urgent for our PV industry. However, in the opinion of the analysts, "the standard of CEC is only aimed at the operation of power stations in the lower reaches of the industry, power generation, and other fields, including these 40 remaining items' standardise 'standards. The vast majority of the future will not be able to learn from the experience (for example, some standards can be used for reference to the more mature semiconductor industry). A long process of argumentation. Therefore, even if all parties attach importance to standard establishment and actively participate in it, it will be two to three years before our PV standard system is fully formed. As the current cost of PV is still relatively higher than the traditional energy, it has been driven by policy driven development. The amount of industry subsidies given by the government is highly correlated with the development prosperity of the photovoltaic industry. A sudden policy reduction has triggered the biggest adjustment in the history of the photovoltaic industry, which has directly led to the reduction of the price and demand of fine silicon carbide powder.
Three, forecast of the trend in the second half of the year
In view of the current economic situation, the export of silicon carbide is unlikely to improve in the second half of this year. The price of silicon carbide is still running smoothly. It is expected that the production of black silicon will decline slightly, and the overall situation in the second half of the market will be more severe. A large number of photovoltaic enterprises are likely to face the danger of merger and reorganization. And the stimulus of "six countries" to the photovoltaic industry policy support, for photovoltaic enterprises is a better opportunity for restructuring and integration of resources, it is expected that the first half of the first half of the production of green silicon carbide will increase, market competition will be more intense. Although there is news that the northwest power will lower the electricity price, it will not have much impact on the market. Therefore, the market trend of silicon carbide is still running smoothly in the second half of the year, and some enterprises will face the best restructuring opportunities at the end of the year.
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